It was supposed to be a big year for travel in the United States, with airlines and hotel companies projecting strong growth. But with the summer travel season about to start, it has instead become a year of uncertainty.

Canadian travel to the United States is down for a third consecutive month, falling 15.2 percent compared with April of last year. Airlines have reduced fares in response to softening demand. The U.S.-based hotel chains Marriott, Hyatt and Hilton say they are experiencing slower growth and all three have lowered their revenue outlook. Airbnb expects growth to ease in the second quarter, and Expedia downgraded its expectations for booking and revenue growth.

“Unpopular policy decisions, whether it be related to Ukraine or trade, are having an effect and the brand of the country has taken a beating,” said Adam Sacks, the president of the research firm Tourism Economics, which projects a 9.4 percent decline in international arrivals to the United States for 2025. At the start of the year, the company was expecting a 9 percent increase.

An earlier New York Times analysis found that international travel to the United States had declined only modestly through April, with the exception of arrivals by Canadians, which were down sharply.

But, as that article noted, travel analysts were uncertain whether the numbers would hold up and “the situation could worsen if economies are further weakened by the trade war or if anti-American sentiment rises.”

Increasingly, it seems, political and economic confusion created by the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda is causing both domestic and international tourists to reconsider their plans. Foreigners are canceling trips in response to threats of steep tariffs on U.S. trade partners, polarizing rhetoric and an immigration crackdown that has resulted in tourists being detained at the U.S. border. American travelers are cutting back over fears of a recession and job insecurity.